Geopolitics argue for belonging to a ‘Block’
Extrapolating current population growth trends on a 50 year horizon, the UK and Europe will have further diminished in global significance.
My view is that the world will gravitate towards power-blocs of nations. China will dominate the narrative in Asia and if we are not careful, in black Africa too through massive investment. Iran will write the narrative in the Middle East. Mexico and the US will be much more closely linked and integrated. India will be India and probably Latin America will be Latin America – the ‘tradition’ of corruption in Venezuela goes back hundreds of years… None of these developments will mean a naturally advantage or benefit for Europe.
In fact, I believe that over that time-span Russia and Europe will have to become much closer to ward off the economic – and potential security – threats of such a global political constellation.
To navigate that world as a country on its own is a pipe-dream.
16 July 2016